“Domestic airfares jumped 4.7 percent to an average $328.12 in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2009, the first year-over-year increase since late 2008. However, average airfares are still $20 below their high for a first quarter, set in 2001…”

That word comes today from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). Read more from the Dallas Morning News.

If you REALLY want to get into in, check out all the numbers on the BTS web site.

Fares have been going up up up since the first year. Now, we may be seeing the first signs of a downward trend. Here’s a sample of some low Springfield fares spotted this week.

• United round trip fares from Springfield to Chicago are as low $204
• American round trip fares from Springfield to Dallas as low as $172
• American round trip fares from Springfield to Corpus Christi as low as $218
• Allegiant round trip fares from Springfield to Los Angeles as low as $240

Shop early. It’s a virtual certainty that the number of low priced seats is small.

We came across an unusually lucid piece of business reporting the other day. The Secrets Behind Crazy Air-travel Prices cuts through the muck and gives a very good overview of how airlines price tickets. Read it once, then read it again. You won’t like it, but it will start to make sense.

Here are some important takeaways—if you don’t remember anything else, remember these points…

• Operating an airline is very expensive
• Its source of revenue, the airline seat, is highly perishable. The moment the plane takes off, that revenue opportunity is lost forever. It is often compared to a rotting banana
• Your seat might look the same as the guy’s in 15F, but he actually bought a different product. Most likely, so did everyone on the plane
• The landscape is littered with failures

Received word from Allegiant today of a fare sale for its Florida destinations. Looks like one-way fare is 80 bucks.  Click here for more information.

We received an email from Tim this morning:

“I travel 2-3 weeks of each month. The new SGF airport is very nice and I am very glad to see the advantages of a comfortable place to fly in/out of the SGF area. My daughter flies 3-4 times per year to Mexico for school, employment and leisure; I fly 24-30 times per year with work; my wife and I fly 3-4 times for vacation.  I find it very frustrating that flights from XNA (NW Arkansas Regional Airport) are consistently less than from SGF.  I do realize Wal-Mart, Tyson Foods, etc. create an advantage with the XNA area, but SGF has a larger metropolitan population than the Fayetteville/Rogers/Bentonville area. XNA offers flights to EWR, CLT, LGA, DTW, MSP and CVG that SGF does not currently offer (some of which have been eliminated in the past 12-18 months).  With these additional destinations, XNA has a greater advantage monetarily and convenience-wise than SGF. What can be done to add these additional destinations/departures from SGF to be more competitive in fares?”

Tim, it all boils down to numbers. Let’s begin with population. The most recent population estimate puts the Fayetteville MSA at: 443,000. The most recent population estimate puts the Springfield MSA at: 426,000. And then there’s per capita income—ultimately it’s more important than MSA population. Fayetteville MSA per capita income: $32,400. Springfield MSA per capita income: $30,104. Bottom line: there are more people in the Fayetteville MSA and they have more money to spend.

At first blush, the differences between these numbers may seem insignificant. But in the hair-splitting world of airline revenue sheets, they make all the difference. And when you add in the business traveler impact of Wal-Mart, Tyson Foods and JB Hunt…well…that’s why XNA has the service it has.

As for fares, we don’t hear nearly as much about this as we used to. In fact, a study commissioned in 2008 showed that SGF fares were slightly lower. The data below reflects the first and second quarter of 2008:

Of course, this data is two years old. And we’ve never claimed that fares are always lower at SGF. On average, though, we will claim that SGF and XNA fares are roughly equal.

There are no magic bullets out there that will bring more service and lower fares to SGF. Ultimately, airport growth is a reflection of the Springfield MSA: as the MSA grows, the airport grows. More people means more demand. More demand means more service. More service means a bigger supply of seats. The greater the supply of seats, the lower the fare.

It really is all about numbers.

The arrival of the new year means time is almost up for Northwest Airlines (NWA). While the airline was bought out by Delta more than a year ago, it’s been pretty tough for the average customer to tell any difference: you can still find a NWA Web site. You still see airplanes and tickets branded with the NWA logo. It’s all about to fade away…

In the last week of December the feds gave Delta the ‘green light to finish integrating Delta and NWA operations.’ That’s according to the Detroit Free Press. The paper reports that by the end of the first quarter the NWA web site “will stop accepting reservations and redirect people to Delta Air Lines…The Northwest name will disappear from boarding passes, airport monitors and airplanes.”

The beginning of the year is always a good time for fare sales. Yesterday United announced a fare sale for both domestic and international destinations. The company press release mentioned:

• Chicago – Denver $91
• San Francisco – Honolulu $239
• Los Angeles – Tokyo $350
• Denver – Los Angeles $91
• Washington Dulles – Orlando $55
• Chicago – Paris $369

Hard to say how much the sale will benefit customers flying from Springfield. If you’re inclined to find out, you’d better hurry. The sales ends January 12.

Fare sale or not, FareCompare.com reports that on December 30, “15,000 United city-pairs were increased by $6 and $10 roundtrip ($3 and $5 each way). The increase covered the bulk of United’s domestic route system — mainly at the $6 roundtrip level. On New Year’s Eve, the remaining legacy airlines began to match including American, Delta/Northwest, US Airways, Continental and Alaska.”

An Allegiant MD80 at SGF

Our friends at Allegiant Air have been busy. Earlier this week news broke that the airline has purchased 18 more airplanes. Read this insightful blog entry over at BNET.

More Allegiant news…a company press release reports Allegiant carried 20 percent more passengers in the fourth quarter than it did in the same quarter of 2008. For the year (2009), Allegiant passenger growth was up 24 percent.

Finally, we have more good news to report on our airport’s total passenger numbers. In November we were up five percent compared to the same month last year. This means we’re still the only major airport in the region with positive 2009 growth numbers. We expect the December numbers to be positive too.

Check out the numbers at other major airports in the central United States:

Numbers gathered January 5 from airport Web sites and media reports.

“With travel demand still sluggish, many U.S. airlines are waiving the advance purchase rules for most domestic destinations this holiday season, according to Bestfares.com CEO Tom Parsons.”

That news comes this morning from USA Today’s web site.  The story continues, “…American Airlines everyday no-advance purchase airfares between Dallas and New York City were selling yesterday for $1,858 roundtrip. Today, the route is priced as low as $388 roundtrip, Parsons says.”

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus!

The Air Transport Association of America (ATA) says it expects a 2.5 percent decline in passenger traffic this holiday season. The ATA is a trade organization representing U.S. airlines. The recession gets most of the blame.

Lower demand means lower fares. “The average retail airfare this week for travel over the December holidays dropped another 2% compared to last week, which saw a 6% average airfare decline.  The average holiday airfare this is $402.24, compared to $409.09 last week.” That’s according to the travel  ekspert.

Michael makes interesting comments in response to a posting earlier this week about Allegiant Air, and its motivations for flying to Orlando International Airport (MCO), rather than Orlando-Sanford airport:

“…after reading the previous blog regarding the change to MCO. Interestingly enough, they are “not a soft option” as yesterday I was speaking with a friend in LA and he was telling me about an associate who wanted to go to LA from STL, but did not want to pay “$600″ to fly there. In the last month I flew to LAX with Allegiant and was telling him about it. Well he passed this along and his associate is driving to SGF from St. Louis to fly to LAX. I guess the flow of passengers is reversing.”

Michael points out what we’ve been noticing for some time: there is reverse flow taking place. It’s not huge, but it is happening and it seems to be increasing.

Just to be clear on what we’re talking about here…

For years anywhere between 12 to 30 percent of Springfield’s potential airport customers have flown from other airports because fares were cheaper. Now we’re getting people driving from St. Louis and Kansas City to Springfield because our fares are lower. And Allegiant’s low fares from Springfield aren’t the only reason. Delta, United and American also get some of the credit.

The example that sticks out in my mind is the couple I met in May at our new terminal’s grand opening. They were getting ready to fly from Springfield to Frankfort, Germany. Their roundtrip fare was $475 a piece. They said the roundtrip cost from St. Louis was $700 to $800 a piece.

Several things to mention today…they’ve been piling up all week!

Our passenger growth streak continues:  September total passenger numbers were up 13%, compared to the same month last year. Up 5% year to year, and up 19 percent since December 31. Our air service consultant summed it up best:

“Your numbers are running completely counter to the national trend.”

Around the office we’re getting a little edgy about over analyzing our good fortunes this year—don’t want to jinx it or anything! So if you’d like to know some of the reasons why our passenger numbers are growing, please read a blog entry from a couple of months ago: Passenger Numbers Continue to Skyrocket.

Edgy or not, I do want to mention one thing about September’s numbers: United’s numbers look better. The airline’s numbers took a nose dive starting in June:

• June -8%
• July -15%
• August -16%
• September -8%

Yes, United is still down, but not in double digits.  United’s health is a nagging concern. To get a feel for where the nag comes from, read this recent story from USA Today.

Heard the good news about Allegiant Air? The airline ended the third quarter, “with a $13.8 million profit that represented a nearly threefold gain over the $4.9 million surplus reported in the year-ago period.” It’s always nice to have good news to report about one of your airlines! BTW, Allegiant’s passenger numbers in Springfield were up 140% in September. Yes, you read right: one-hundred and forty percent.

Got some not-so-good news to report for airline customers: fares continue to edge up. We’ve mentioned it several times on these pages, but it’s worth repeating: fares have no where to go but up. For the past few months most of the airlines have sold seats below cost. As the economy starts to improve, and more people start flying, the airlines will have the traction they need to raise fares. The traction is made possible by the huge cuts airlines have made in the number of seats in the air.  Read more about it from Reuters.

Several have asked about the total number of airport passengers in September…what was the actual number? Here it is: 65,342.