Clear may be making a comeback. That’s according to reporting from the New York Times.

The defunct program “offered travelers a tempting proposition: pay up to $199 a year, submit to a fingerprint and iris scan, and skip to the front of interminable airport security lines.”

The company went belly-up earlier this year, but, according to the Times, may be revived by an investment group called Henry Inc.

The Clear program was never used in Springfield, but we know that many or our local customers did use it in major hub airports.

The American Airlines web site is returning some bargain Springfield fares this morning. These are fares for this weekend only…

• Round-trip to Austin: $240
• Round-trip to to Chicage O’Hare: $94
• Round-trip to El Paso: $240

You know what? A year ago fares to those small Texas cities were routinely running between $800-$1000.

See if you can get one before they’re gone: http://www.aa.com/aa/netsaaver/viewNetSAAverHome.do

Jason says:

“With all the cuts American Airlines have made over the years in STL, I would like to know what you think the issue(s) is. And what the airport could do to improve and possibly attract another airline to have a large presence located there?”

The most recent American cuts in St. Louis are due to the the recession and the resulting decline in airline revenue. But to really understand what’s going on we need some historical perspective…

Remember the airline TWA? Before the American buy out of TWA, in April 2001, St. Louis was a major hub airport. It was one of three TWA hubs: Atlanta, New York Kennedy and St. Louis.

When American bought TWA St. Louis lost it’s major hub status. From our point-of-view, at least, that status transferred to Dallas/Ft. Worth International (DFW). Before 2001, TWA flew hundreds of Springfield customers every day to St. Louis to make connections. Now those Springfield customers fly American to DFW to make connections. Bottom line: American uses DFW as a major hub rather than St. Louis. That’s a simple way of putting it, but from our point-of-view it’s accurate. The buy out of TWA brought on a long and slow decline of air service in St. Louis that continues to this day.

You ask what this airport can do to regain St. Louis service? Very little. The connections most Springfield customers need to make are no longer available in St. Louis. They’re to be found at DFW or elsewhere. In the final analysis, there simply isn’t enough customer demand for an airline to currently justify a Springfield to St. Louis flight.

If you’d like to really dive into a business anaylis of what’s going with American and St. Louis, check this out.

Our August passenger numbers are in and the news is good: our total passenger count was up 13 percent, compared to the same month last year. For the year we’re up four percent. It’s our fourth consecutive month of positive growth and it comes at a time when many airports report negative growth numbers.

We began the year down 14 percent…now we’re up four percent…so for the year we’ve come 18 percent. It’s great news, but let’s ad some perspective.

While our August 2009 numbers are certainly better than last year, they fall short of the three years before 2008. Take a look:

• August 2009 total passengers: 73,499

• August 2008 total passengers: 64,992

• August 2007 total passengers: 76,859

• August 2006 total passengers: 74,465

• August 2005 total passengers: 79,866

This vividly illustrates just how bad it was last year at this time. And it shows that while we’re doing better, we’re still behind where we were two, three and four years ago (when the economy was doing better).

So, while things are good, we still have a lot of catching up to do. Or, to put it another way, the economy still has a lot of improving to do.

How is the economy doing? Most experts seem to agree it’s getting better. But be warned—there are still gale warnings out for the aviation industry….

Everyone in the industry expects a very weak 4th quarter. Delta reports that it expects yields will be down 11 to 14 percent in the quarter. Yield is one of the most important airline metrics: it’s the revenue generated per seat for each mile flown.

The International Air Transport Association says it expects the world’s airlines to lose $11 billion by the end of the year. The head of the organization says “the global economic storm may be abating…but airlines have not yet found safe harbor….”

Our aviation business consultant, the Boyd Group, thinks things may rebound in the 3rd quarter of next year. But with unemployment still going up we should expect air travel to continue being weak. As Michael Boyd puts it, “Employment is the foundation of air travel.”

Earlier this week the head of the Federal Reserve addressed the issue of employment. The New York Times reports Ben Bernanke as saying, ”The Recession is very likely over [but} it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time, as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was…”

Yesterday the Springfield Business Journal reported the August employment numbers for Missouri: 9.5 percent. That compares to 9.3 percent in July.

Bottom line: don’t look for real improvement in the airline and airport industry until employment begins to rebound.

News this morning that Delta Airlines “is in talks to invest in struggling Japan Airlines Corp and become its top shareholder…” Read the rest of the story from Reuters.

No items in seat back pocket? Say what?

Yes, it’s true. New York Times columinst Joe Sharkey provides an entertaining read on his encounter with a Skywest flight attendant:

…when I flew Skywest Airlines from Denver to Tucson, a grouchy flight attendant announced before takeoff that “according to F.A.A. safety regulations” passengers could place nothing at all in the seat-back pockets. Not a newspaper, a book or a pair of reading glasses.

First we’ve heard of this. And since Skywest flies for United here in Springfield, we thought we’d better pass it on. Perhaps at some point you’ll have to pay to use that pocket…

Allegiant Air sent word this morning of its sale for trips to Florida. Check it out here.

Greg says:

“I recall you posted our Allegiant bookings to Los Angeles were the best prebookings they have had.  Are our Allegiant bookings still doing really well for the hope to maybe get another destination like Ft. Lauderdale or Bellingham, Washington?”

All of our Allegiant flights do very well, including Los Angeles. That being said, don’t expect any new destinations anytime soon. Given the current state of the economy all the airlines, including Allegiant, are very careful when considering expansion.

The news at Lambert Field in St. Louis isn’t good these days. For that matter, there’s been bad news coming out of that airport  since American Airlines bought out TWA. More on that in a minute…

This week comes this news from KSDK, “United Airlines is having a tough time filling seats on their flights out of Lambert Airport, so starting tomorrow, they’re switching from a flying mix of big airliners and small regional jets to only flying those smaller regional planes.” Read the rest of the story here.

Before the American buy out of TWA, in April 2001, St. Louis was a major hub airport. It was one of three TWA hubs: Atlanta, New York Kennedy and St. Louis. When American bought the airline St. Louis lost it’s major hub status. From our point-of-view, at least, that status transferred to Dallas/Ft. Worth International. Before 2001, TWA flew hundreds of Springfield customers every day to St. Louis to make connections. Now those Springfield customers fly American to Dallas to make connections.

Aaron has a question about our surging passenger numbers:

“As we all know everyone loves cheap fares, but it seems like this can be said even more so for Springfield, MO. Like you said, cheap fares are not just found in Southwest Missouri, but across the country. My question is since everyone else is getting these cheap fares why aren’t other airports seeing their passenger numbers soar like ours? Also, why doesn’t an airline like Southwest, AirTran, etc… take notice of the Springfield Branson National Airports surging passenger numbers during these cheap fare sales and try out the market? It only makes sense seeing our numbers. I’m sure we wouldn’t lose any more business to STL, KC, and Tulsa if that were to happen making our passenger numbers REALLY soar.”

These are really good questions. We’ve thought a lot about the first one: “why aren’t other airports seeing their passenger numbers soar like ours?”

Let’s begin with a caveat: trying to compare one air market to another is like comparing apples to oranges. Example: people chew on us about the fact that Fayetteville, AR has (or did have until the recession) daily direct service to Miami and Los Angeles. People say, “Fayetteville is smaller than we are and they have direct service, therefore the Springfield airport is screwing up…”

This point-of-view is detached from reality. First of all, the population of the Fayetteville metro area is bigger than Springfield’s. That means more people to feed the airlines. Secondly, the Fayetteville metro is home to several huge corporate headquarters: Wal-Mart, Tyson and JB Hunt. These companies, and Wal-Mart in particular, generate thousands of business trips every year. If Wal-Mart went away tomorrow, Fayetteville’s daily direct service to the coast would disappear in a heart beat.

Ok. I tell you all that to make the point that comparing one market to another is pretty tricky. Every market is different. That being said, here are some thoughts about why our passenger numbers are soaring, while other airports aren’t.   ; )

• The presence of Allegiant Air in the market has made a difference. It added service to Los Angeles in early May. It’s total May passenger numbers were up 56 percent in Springfield compared to the same month last year. Its low fares attract customers that normally wouldn’t consider flying.

• The generally lower fares offered by all the airlines has made a difference, but here’s a key point: the lower fares probably have a bigger impact in smaller air markets (like ours). Customers who live in small markets are used to dealing with higher fares. So when fares go down they jump. Customers who live in big markets (like Kansas City) are probably not as price sensitive. Bottom line: lower fares have a bigger customer impact in small markets like Springfield.

• Compared to other regional economies, our economy is in pretty good shape. That’s not to say that the recession hasn’t hurt us, but we are better off than many other areas.

Let’s move on to the second question:

Why doesn’t an Airline like Southwest, AirTran, etc… take notice of the Springfield Branson National Airport’s surging passenger numbers during these cheap fare sales and try out the market? It only makes sense seeing our numbers.”

It makes sense to you Aaron, but it doesn’t make business sense to Southwest or AirTran. Why? This market doesn’t have a big enough population. Or, to put it another way, we don’t have enough people to fill the number of seats those airlines would want to sell.

Let’s begin with AirTran. That airline won’t fly into a market this small unless it’s paid to do so. That’s what’s happening at the airport in Branson—the airport is paying the airline to provide the service. AirTran has a similar arrangement in Wichita.

As for Southwest, it’s a similar story, but with some key differences:

• Airports can’t buy Southwest service. The airline doesn’t run its business that way.

• The Southwest business model generally dictates that the airline won’t enter a market that has less than a million people living in the metropolitan area. That’s the customer base Southwest needs to do business. The Springfield metro population is approximately 420,000. We’re more than half-a-million people short!

Finally, whenever someone brings up the subject of Southwest I feel obliged to provide them with a couple of reality checks. Here they are, sorry!

Assuming that Southwest did decide to fly here, what market do you suppose it would fly to? It would almost certainly be its home base, Dallas Love Field. Have you ever tried to make a connection out of Love Field? It wouldn’t be the panacea that many people imagine.

And finally, Southwest isn’t as cheap as everyone thinks. According to well known aviation analyst Darryl Jenkins, of Embry Riddle University, Southwest is the lowest fare carrier in less than one-third of its markets. He says, “The illusion of low fare is better than a low fare and Southwest has the highest percentage of high fares of any airline.” If you’re skeptical about this, do a market by market comparison of fares and you’ll discover what those of us in the aviation industry already know: the mystique of Southwest has more to do with perception than low fares.